Apple and EA? Not As Far-Fetched As You Might Think

So amidst the hours and hours of studying for my law school exams, I felt I’d take a short breather and share my thoughts on all the commotion abuzz over Wall Street chatter that tech innovator (or as I prefer to call them, “slick re-packager”) Apple might be eying a takeover of Electronic Arts (“EA”).  Michael Pachter went on record to call the notion, “retarded,” which is not exactly the way I would have put it, but at least he’s using layman terms.  Of course, all of this is just chatter, but that hasn’t stopped blogs such as Joystiq and Kotaku from reporting on it.  A brief perusal of the comments and messages shows most readers are either in the “WTF?” or “no way!” camp.  Granted, the very thought of Apple running EA doesn’t necessarily cross most gamers’ minds; but then again, no one thought Final Fantasy maker Square Enix could successfully marry its franchise with Walt Disney, either.

Yeah, that analogy isn’t exactly fair (or entirely relevant).  The point is an Apple-EA merger (or takeover) isn’t exactly as wild or as far-fetched an idea as many think.  The focus of the Internet community seems to be on the dreaded notion of Apple “exclusivizing” EA properties, such as Madden or Tiger Woods Golf on the iPhone or on iTunes.  Or, that Apple will force EA to waste resources on MAC game development.  Much of this misses the point, however.  Apple didn’t get where it is today by making unreasonable decisions.  Steve Jobs is an avid supporter of dropping barriers to access (remember the whole DRM speech from 2007?), and he sits with the Disney board of directors, and let’s face it, few companies have embraced the digital generation as well as Disney has (its recent hulu.com stake is just one example of how Disney understands that digital worlds are not primed for content control freaks).  Mr. Jobs undeniably plays a strong influence in encouraging these sorts of decisions.  I doubt any Apple-led EA would seriously alter how EA distributes or targets its content to gamers.  Madden will still be across consoles.  So then what would an Apple-led EA likely do or mean to the industry?  Here are a couple possibilities:

1)  A more casual EA

And by “casual,” I don’t mean EA’s (terribly misguided and nonchalant) approach to marketing new franchises (Dead Space and Mirror’s Edge, I’m looking at you two).  Apple is likely to encourage EA to develop games better tuned for mass appeal, similar to how Activision succeeded (and is now “sequeling” to death) in the Guitar Heroes games.  EA may actually put more beef (and not just pep talk) behind its Wii-dedicated teams to deliver more titles similar to Boom Blox.  Along with this approach, an Apple-led EA would develop more flash-oriented titles for iTunes, iPhone, and (yes) for Xbox Live and PlayStation Network.    Would this mean more portable games over console titles?  That answer is not entirely clear.  Given the audience composition of the 360 and PS3, we’d probably see fewer EA titles outside of the traditional sports franchises.  Apple may prefer EA focus new franchises towards the Wii and DS(i).

EA wouldn’t leave console gaming behind.  Apple knows Madden and EA Sports is the bread and butter of the company.  Forcing such titles to appear only on Apple platforms would just be nonsensical, if not short of stupid.  It would be like buying a multi-billion dollar company just to run it into the ground, or an $80,000 Ferrari just to send it over a cliff, and –well—even Jobs has to answer to his shareholders.  Multi-platform support would very much continue.  We might see a nice blending between iTunes and Madden (think of all those music downloads!) or even extras built into the iPhone version (but none of these are likely to be serious alterations to the current model.  In other words, an Apple-led EA isn’t going to result in marquee franchises jumping ship.  What it more than likely will mean is more games targeted to moderate and casual gamers.  But honestly, that’s a winning strategy for EA and every other gaming company out there, so even if Apple didn’t takeover EA, this is a shift we should be seeing across the landscape.  The big difference with an Apple-led EA?  My guess is better navigation and more targeted, efficient management.

2)  Following the Casual, for a Change

Why is there a shift happening in the industry?  Or, as famed God of War creator David Jaffe mentioned on GameTrailers.com, why should the industry perhaps rethink its dedication to the hardcore?  It doesn’t take a genius to figure out where these sentiments are coming from.

There are dozens of rumors about Microsoft and Sony introducing motion-sensing controllers (which is a rather sad and ultimately pointless endeavor, BTW – that could be a whole post by itself), and major publishers this generation are ALL suffering because PS3 and 360 adoption penetration isn’t making up for development costs and other major investments.  The economy has something to do with it; but this goes deeper than the economy (besides, gaming has fared well during this recession).

Both Sony and Microsoft squarely aimed their consoles at the hardcore; this despite the cold-hard truth that the hardcore is the minority (and possibly a shrinking one), stronger in voice only because they’re so loud (and yeah, boisterously obnoxious).  The decision to cater to that crowd served well in previous generations.  It’s sort of like trickle down “coolness” (which doesn’t ordinarily apply to us nerds, BTW).  The hardcore adopt a console first and determine what kinds of games people like.  The industry follows them and the masses are influenced by the hardcore to buy and like the games the hardcore enjoy, and the process repeats itself every 5 to 6 years.  It’s sort of like the film industry bothering with all those “enchanting” indie films to charm the “hardcore” for recognition and praise.

This time around, a three-letter word changed – nay, bomb-shelled – the process: Wii.  It essentially gave the casual a different place to go; they didn’t have to listen to the hardcore or follow the games they played.  A truly alternative option opened up and the casuals basically left (even moderates followed after Sony announced its $599 price tag).  For Sony and Microsoft, that desertion has proved painful and potentially console-ending (Pachter predicted the end of consoles – probably one more generation to go but may be).  For their supporting developers, that desertion has resulted in millions of un-recouped expenses.  Few are risking anything on PS3 and the 360, and that’s likely why both manufacturers are introducing waggle-ware to (re)open a line of communication to the casual gamers.  Is it too late?  Almost assuredly yes (not to mention this splits an already small user-base – who’ll bother with these contraptions outside first party developers – and it’s not as if they have any more time to be spending on other games since the consoles can’t produce enough AAA titles like it used to without heavy-duty costs).  By now, no casual gamer is ever going to see a PS3 or 360 as anything but hardcore gaming consoles, especially when the Wii remains an attractive alternative.

EA has been – yes – a victim of that desertion this time around.  Madden can only save it so many times, and even EA knows the future is far from secure (Madden retires, Tiger brand is slowly becoming Tony Hawk: redux, and the NFL is rethinking its license deal).  The maxim, “giant today, puny tomorrow,” is as applicable to GameStop and Blockbuster as it is to EA.

So where does Apple fit in?  Well, Apple is in far better position to embrace the casual than either Sony or Microsoft; it essentially has the audience but doesn’t quite have the content.  Apple is no content provider or producer, but it certainly knows how to sell what it has.  Apple is very good at branding itself and its merchandise.  EA used to be good at this, but now it is all over the place (Army of Two? Spore? Burnout? Mass Effect? What?).  Face it, as visually oriented as gaming is, gamemakers aren’t very good marketers.  We can all count the dozens of great games that never got advertised or advertised well (Psychonauts anyone?).  Apple can help in that department; Apple can also help EA better understand what the casual market is looking for, and drive “simplicity” into EA’s early designs and development stages.  This probably doesn’t calm those fears of the hardcore, but since when did the hardcore ever care about EA?  To most of us, EA represents the Wal-Mart of the industry.  A console industry with fewer EA Games is hardly worth crying to home about.  Now, if this were Capcom, we’d all be bawling.

3)  Leveraging the Future

Ultimately, all that I’ve written references the immediate few years post an Apple takeover.  If this were to happen, Apple is clearly eying the future, and that is where an Apple-led EA could in fact change the very landscape of gaming from where we see it today.

If digital downloads is in fact where gaming is headed (and there are some doubts on this, or at least how far away it is), then an Apple-led EA would be primed to lead the charge.  Apple knows the download industry and may want to firmly establish itself as the premier “iTunes” for gaming before someone else gets too big or too entrenched in gamers’ minds.  That sort of mindshare starts with the masses, and boy does Apple have the masses.

On the other hand, if there is any speculation about digital downloads being the future, an Apple-led EA might do its darnedest to force the intersection, or get all of us there sooner than we expected.  The leverage, innovation, and content between Apple and EA would certainly be sufficient to get the job done, presuming it had the right leadership and multi-year business plan. In this sense, the real people who should be freaking out about this is GameStop CEO J Paul Raines – digital downloads will probably do to GameStop what $1 rentals and Netflix has done to Blockbuster.

With EA at its belt, Apple becomes far more than just a technology company and it would certainly provide it more leverage to push its platforms and its ideas.  Right now, anything Apple makes is at the mercy of the content providers, meaning if Apple doesn’t always play nice, then they can go elsewhere.  If Apple itself builds the content, then it gets easier to launch new ideas because there is support (and in business, big support is necessary to be followed by other support).  Threatening to withhold EA content from others would give Apple ample leverage in putting together the future of, say, digital downloads.

And that’s the end of my rant.  Back to exam studying.

 

‘Crystal Skull’ is an Action-Filled Romp, Don’t Let Anyone Else Tell You Otherwise

I am not an Indiana Jones “fan” – yes, I’ve seen the others and have enjoyed them very much, but I am at-best an admirer of the adventure genre. For me, Indiana Jones was more of an archetype of the classic adventurer than an original creation. That said, what Spielberg and Lucas have produced in ‘Crystal Skull’ is nothing short of spectacular entertainment. Anyone with an iota of creativity will enjoy this film. Even at over two hours, ‘Crystal Skull’ never once felt long – which is often a problem for blockbuster films which often feel a need to pack in one explosion too many or one line too much. This is probably a testament to the masters behind the camera and script. The film is certainly enjoying an awesome opening weekend!

Truth be told, ‘Crystal Skull’ is by no means perfect – some critics suggest it feels empty or lacking when compared to the prior installments. I’m not exactly sure what they are getting at here — it’s not as if the Indiana Jones films were ever highly inspirational works of art. They were made primarily as commercial adventure films, standouts because of the high-quality direction and excellent action sequences. Both of these are in abundance in ‘Crystal Skull’ — so, either the critics are lost in some nostalgic paradise (i.e. they remember the films as being better than they are) or they’re just pining to find something wrong in everything they watch (which is sadly the case with many reviewers nowadays). I was quite pleased to see Mr. Roeper deliver an excellent critique — his rebuke of Michael Phillips in ‘Ebert & Roeper’ is on the mark. That Phillips chastises the flick for being unrealistic is nothing short of silly. Roeper’s take? ‘Indy 4′ wasn’t made to be realistic. My take? Umm, duh.

Harrison Ford does a splendid job reprising the role and if not for the wrinkles, grizzled voice, and white hair, you’d swear he hadn’t lost a step. Shia LeBeouf certainly looks like he could play the next Indiana Jones; he has an uncanny resemblance to Ford in this film and he displays a strong knack for the sometimes comedic action scenes. Spielberg and Lucas might have the perfect actor to carry on the Indie mantel moving forward. That said, I actually would prefer one more Ford film but that wish is probably a long-shot. I suppose I should be grateful that we even got this.

Resurrecting old icons is a risky business. Stallone pulled it off with Rocky but missed the mark in Rambo. Singer fell on his face with Superman Returns – and early takes on “Get Smart” aren’t looking very good. Spielberg and Lucas have done an excellent job bringing back Dr. Jones and likely closing the chapter on Ford. There is definitely room to expand the franchise (recall the Young Indiana Jones Chronicles?) — and so long as Spielberg and Lucas are involved, it should always be worth the price of admission.

On a gaming note, LEGO Indiana Jones releases next week. This one is looking like quite a keeper!

 

The Doctor’s Daughter?! David Tennant Meets Peter Davison’s Georgia Moffett — The Result? Much Potential.

Georgia Moffett (above right) plays the Doctor’s daughter in the sixth episode of the fourth season of ‘Doctor Who’ on BBC One. The episode paces perhaps a little too quickly, leaving us with a slightly disenchanted connection with Ms. Moffett when she steps in front of a bullet intended for the Doctor, but nevertheless, Ms. Moffett puts on a solid performance and it would appear viewers might be getting more of her later on (she seems to have regenerated at the end).

Interestingly, Ms. Moffett is the real-life daughter of Peter Davison, the fifth doctor. She also auditioned for the role of Rose Tyler, which wound up in the very capable hands of Billie Piper. While I think Ms. Moffett is a good actress, I’m very glad the role of Rose went to Ms. Piper. Moffett’s acting is a little flat compared to Piper’s — and I’m not sure she has the same range as Billie does. That said, if the BBC does carry on a new series with her as the Doctor’s daughter, it might turn out to be a great series. Many on Who fansites have clamored for a female doctor; Ms. Moffett could be a perfect substitute for post-4th season blues. And since the BBC plans to put the Who series on-ice for a while to juggle the creative team, how better to keep the Who-verse top of mind?

Check out the trailer to the episode here (Also embedded below). For more promo photos, journey here.

 

Downey, Jr. Perfect as ‘Iron Man’, MARVEL Proves Once Again Why Its King in Comics-to-Film Business

This movie bothered me — but not because it was bad. I’m what one might call a Superman fan, so it irks me that a second-string Marvel character like Iron Man gets a class-act flick like this and Superman, arguably the most recognized (and before ‘Returns’, most admired) superhero, gets rubbish. That said, this post isn’t about Superman, but if anyone from Warner Bros. with any level of control watches ‘Iron Man,’ they should take some notes on what makes a good superhero movie.

‘Iron Man’ succeeds on something most superhero movies don’t have: solid writing. There is considerable punch between Downey, Jr. and Paltrow throughout this film, and each deliver his/her lines with credible accuracy. Downey, Jr. may not fit the category of blockbuster actor and certainly wasn’t on anyone’s shortlist of superhero physiques, but he is almost perfect as the troubled and transformed Tony Stark. Paltrow also deserves some credit for her role as Virginia ‘Pepper’ Potts — some might say she hasn’t really done any acting since ‘Shakespeare in Love’ (and this isn’t wholly without merit) — but she nevertheless puts forth a classy effort. Paltrow is admittedly an acquired taste — there are many who think she was miscast in this role but I do not share that opinion. If you want to see a truly miscast female lead, see Kate Bosworth in ‘Superman Returns’.

The plot is serviceable and the action sequences – though few – are well-played. That said, some comic gurus will probably notice one-too many similarities with Chris Nolan’s ‘Batman Begins’ but let’s be frank, Tony Stark is in many ways a chopped up version of Bruce Wayne. There aren’t as many surprises in the story and the back-stabbing possibilities become awfully apparent early on. What perhaps kept me glued to the screen was how good ‘Iron Man’ turned out despite the character’s position in the pantheon of superhero creations. ‘Iron Man’ is no Wolverine, and his following has always been more cult-ish than mass. That will probably change with this film. Marvel and Favreau have somehow legitimized alchemy; they’ve taken brass and turned it into gold. Kudos to them.

And yet as surprising good as ‘Iron Man’s’ debut is, it isn’t an off-the-scale shocker. ‘Iron Man’ is the first of hopefully many movies Marvel is financing itself. That’s right, after some miserable outings (anyone remember ‘Ghost Rider’? No one? Good.), Marvel decided it best to manually bring its characters to the big screen versus licensing them off to studios such as Sony or Fox. If Iron Man is any indication, this was clearly the right move for the comic book giant. This makes so much sense and honestly, is something I’ve always scratched my head about. Why movie studios often put people unfamiliar with the properties to make them was frankly lost on me. Singer never read a Superman comic (or for that matter, any comic) growing up. Some believe his X-Men movies were gold – I’m of the opinion they were decent; spectacular only because no one had made or seen serious superhero movies in a long time. But I’d bet that superhero films would be miles better if we put the likes of Busiek, Morrison, Miller, and Moore on them. Art direction by creators like Lee, Ross, Campbell, and Maduriera (and maybe even Warren) would put to shame what we’ve seen in a good number of superhero movies.

So here’s to Marvel’s ‘Iron Man’; I hope to see many sequels — but please don’t become ‘Batman and Robin’. And to DC Comics, please get off your rear ends and try to wrestle more control away from Warner Bros. before it turns the rest of your beloved franchises into wretched abominations; see ‘Catwoman‘.

 

Lara Croft to Make History With Anniversary

So the ESRB “slip” about an XBOX 360 title turns out to be true. Eidos UK officially announced that Tomb Raider Anniversary — already released on the PlayStation 2 and PC — will have an episodic release through the XBOX Live Marketplace before its retail release later in the year. For the 360, will mark the first time a retail game is sold via its online store. The game will be made available through four separate downloads, the first two are expected to be released in September with the latter two reaching gamers shortly thereafter. Minus the manor section (which will be available for free), the entire game will cost 2400 MS points, or roughly $30 which matches the MSRP of the current console releases. It’s possible (and probably likely) the retail version will be priced higher — though I don’t suspect by much.  The only bad part about this should-be historic gesture is that Eidos is only allowing those who have TR Legend to download Anniversary — does this make sense to anyone?   Why Eidos is doing this makes little sense, especially if you think about the fact that Anniversary is supposed to be a way to enter the world of Tomb Raider for those who may not yet be familiar with it.  Without a doubt, Eidos is  losing out on online sales by forcing consumers to buy Legend in order to access this option.

This news comes on the heel of Capcom’s announcement that it had signed an agreement with Valve’s online distribution system Stream. Capcom will bring Lost Planet: Extreme Condition, Onimusha 3, Devil May Cry 3: Special Edition and Supper Puzzle Fighter II Turbo HD Remix (try saying that three times fast) to Stream — and future Capcom titles are also part of this deal. Capcom is the first Japanese developer to sign up with Valve and its move might be the first signal that we may be moving closer to the day when entire games will be purchased online. MS and Sony have repeatedly made mention of this idea — and that it is very likely in the next-gen that disc formats will be made defunct by broadband distribution. While I’d like to agree with them, I do think part of gaming is driven by material collection — it’s the same reason why many people (though not as many as before) still buy music CDs. CD sales in Europe and Japan for instance remain healthy — and that is because music publishers bring out CDs packed with exclusive content (music videos, interviews, not-for-online tracks). US publishers haven’t quite moved in that direction just yet but it’s one way to keep retail sales flowing. That might also explain why so many Japanese console games are released with limited editions and extra swag. We’re already starting to see such collectibility slip into US gaming culture with Halo 3 and multiple variations of Gears of War. As broadband penetration picks up, I’d suspect we’re going to get a lot more of these types of releases. The question is whether broadband will actually make up the majority of future game purchases. If the price difference is substantial then it just might — but something tells me it’s still unlikely — or at least a decade away.

BTW, for all of you staring at the photo, that’s Karima Adebibe — the model Eidos hired to represent Lara Croft for TR: Legend released last year. Eidos has always hired a new model to be Lara for each of its games dating all the way back to the decade old orginal Tomb Raider game (the one Anniversary is a remake of). Based on most gamers’ views, they think Karima is the closest to Lara there has ever been (well, perhaps excluding Angelina Jolie — though that’s debatable after the painfully awful “Cradle of Life”).

 

PlayStation Enters the Blogosphere

About time; you’d think Sony would have launched its own blog a while ago, especially given it’s avid fanbase online — but better late than never, right? Thus far, the blog only has two entries, but I’d expect it to become a daily dose of all things PlayStation straight from the mouths of developers, producers and even executives. As the editors admit, it will house some typical PR fluff but those articles should be balanced out with juicy, ‘insider’ content such as exclusive interviews and first-shots of previously unspoken about games. There is general consensus amongst gamers that when it comes to brand loyalty, Nintendo owns the most passionate lot. It’s debatable but IMO even Microsoft’s fanboys are louder and more motivated than Sony’s. This blog could be a solid step for PlayStation to build a tighter communications bridge to its core supporters. I say ‘could’ because unfortunately corporate blogs such as this one tend to get many things wrong about its presentation and content. Some of those problems include:

• Lack of real-time communication: We understand people are busy at these companies, but if users clamor around a question and throw it at the blog’s editors, we expect some response. Even a ‘we’ll try’ followed by a ’sorry, we just can’t get ahold of those people’ is better than dead silence for weeks on end.
• Been there, read that: If the blog is an insider look (and this one claims it will be), it needs to deliver on it from time to time. Again, most of us are reasonable readers and don’t expect bombshells (i.e. megatons) every day or even every week, but if the PS blog starts reporting news I read in EGM 2 months ago or even GameSpot yesterday, then readers like us are going to assume that it’s either (a) poorly informed, meaning it has no pipeline to the internal divisions or (b) that it’s censored, meaning everything we’re reading is being funneled through legal departments and 800 sets of eyes before it gets to us. BTW, (b) usually ends up resulting in (a).
• No consistency with updates: Alright, we know there isn’t much going on in the world of videogames right now. I feel like PSM has been previewing the same 5 games for the last 6 issues — Do I really need to see another picture of Heavenly Sword or Lair with two paragraphs telling me it looks good? But that doesn’t mean this blog can sit on its rear end for weeks with no posts. Like some GameCube sites that have since moved on, if you can’t post daily, then make it 1-2 a week on specific days (say, Mon. and Thurs.) and keep it going. Most of us don’t visit blogs on a regular basis anyways, so this should keep us satisfied. Start messing with this kind of schedule and you’ll lose a lot of us. Don’t post regularly and well, this thing will sputter and die pretty quickly.
• Censoring for the Corp. Good: A lot of us own a 360, Wii, or other competitor system, and some of us like them more or as much as PS hardware, so we’re going to draw comparisons and some of us are going to vent our frustration about the state of the PS world (which I think many of us agree is hardly healthy right now). Editors can certainly edit for swearing and lack of gentleman-ship, but any censoring beyond that is going to create a stir. For instance, if someone posts under a Naughty Dog interview after playing “Uncharted” and says the game “is easily bested by 360’s <insert title>, blah, blah, blah”, I don’t expect anyone to touch that comment.

With mini-E3 fast approaching, what better way to establish some cred than to post some major news up here? May be the first gameplay glimpse into “Killzone 2″? Or may be even a preview of some yet unannounced title? Some of us readers have high expectations for this blog, and we’ll be keeping a close eye to make sure it does even better what ThreeSpeech has done for some time (Good to hear that this blog will be collaborating/working with them).

 

Rejoice Snake Fans! MGS Movie Moves Ahead

Unlike the quick death of the planned Halo movie, Sony is pushing full steam ahead with the movie adaptation of “Metal Gear Solid”, and hopes are high that Kojima’s Solid Snake will end the run of terrible game-to-movie adapatations.

At last year’s E3, Kojima mentioned he had settled on a Class A production studio to handle his creation. It is probably no coincidence that Sony Pictures took the option. Given the incredible importance of the MGS titles on every PlayStation console, Sony’s commitment to Kojima might have more to do with ensuring MGS4 remains a Sony exclusive title, or at least long enough to dwindle away the value of a 360 port.

The real question for game fans is whether MGS will use David Hayter — whose voice is fused with the image of Solid Snake since his involvement in the original MGS for PSOne. Casting is still a ways off, but Sony has already pinned down Michael De Luca, the producer of the upcoming Ghost Rider movie, to helm the project. Kojima looks like he’ll be plenty involved, which could be good — so long as we don’t have 30 minute-long codec conversations.

 

PS3’s Woes Grow(ing); Should Howard be Worried?

You have to appreciate great journalism — and few newspapers dish out consistent quality like the New York Times (the Washington Post is probably the closest, and don’t even think about mentioning the WSJ. That paper and NYT don’t belong in the same sentence). The NYT provided a piece on the State of Videogames the other day, and it’s a nice read — much to the delight of Wii fans, Sony continues to absorb a barrage of negative publicity, and the situations made worse by idiotic comments from Sony Reps that either make no sense or are SO deliberately PR spin that they’d make Tony Snow proud. GameSpot kindly posted these comments from the NYT — without the rest of the article, they are akin to when Atari Reps insisted floundering Jaguar sales were not a reflection of apathy but of consumers wanting to hold out for 2-3 more killer apps. And some of us who use it as a paperweight are still waiting on those killer apps.

To gamers, the fact that Wii outsold the PS3 during the holidays is not news — after all, Sony barely got enough machines out the door after several production delays. Nintendo, on the other hand, didn’t run into that problem — and I think that’s primarily because the Wii’s infrastructure is indeed GameCube’s on steroids. I don’t mean that as a dent to the Wii (so fanboys stay at bay!); come on, it’s a technological fact based on the specs and many 3rd party developers have expressed the same sentiment.

So should Sony be running scared about now? The answer? “Not yet.” Sony is right to say this is a marathon, not a sprint. However, a little anxiety is healthy, and may help take Sony’s hubris down a few notches. While economists always try to predict markets, the fact is markets are unpredictable, and that alone is why Sony should be a little worried about recent trends. While the past suggest console penetration ranks can be altered, that window has gotten smaller and smaller each generation. Sony’s troubled leap from the gate might have done enough damage to keep PS3 down for a long time, and given most consumers don’t spend $600 on consoles until the Holidays, that means Sony will have an even harder time moving hardware while 360 and Wii continue to sell and grow their libraries. Sometimes, being an “impulse buy,” as Sony describes the Wii, isn’t such a bad thing.

This scenario might be improved if demand for PS3 was still high, but that craze has clearly come and gone. PS3s are now sitting on most store shelves for weeks before they are claimed. In fact, stores in my area have them in ample supply — and no one is buying them. Of course, a system is only as good as its games, so Sony is hoping exclusives will show PS3’s muscle in the coming months. Unfortunately, there is cause to worry in this department, too.

How “good” (and I mean visually for now) games will be and for which system they release for depend in large part on penetration. All these rumors about MGS4 going 360 and Ubi Soft dropping Assassin’s exclusivity are happening because PS3’s penetration numbers are falling well short. It doesn’t help that PS3’s development costs a whole bunch more than 360’s, and that the software backing the system is notoriously complicated. You know it’s pretty bad when Hideo Kojima goes on record to say the PS3 architecture is outright confusing.

Exclusive titles drive console purchases — it’s what has kept Nintendo in the game and the reason why Microsoft wines and dines Japanese developers on a weekly basis. Without killer exclusives, differentiation in the console market is hard. Perhaps in this sense, Sony is right — its real competitor is the 360, not the Wii (Though I’d argue that either way, it loses ground). As more publishers/developers decide to include 360 versions, what will happen is graphics downscaling; PS2’s huge penetration meant Xbox ports looked decidedly less stellar (since the games were being made first for PS2 and then for the Xbox). Poetic justice may exist because the 360 looks like it’ll be returning the favor this generation. If Microsoft keeps a penetration lead, there won’t be enough to make consumers fork over the extra $200-$300. Most gamers will settle for a 360 and see the few games they don’t get as a wash since Microsoft has its own killer exclusives. Sony’s decision to ignore the Wii might prove fatal in this scenario. Like what Ross Perot did to Bush, Sr. and what Nadir did to Gore, Wii might swing in to steal Japan’s market, which will compel developers there to hop on board Nintendo’s development train. That’ll mean PS3’s edge in the Japanese market (the one place 360 can’t break into) could be gone or at least diminished. With fewer games coming out of Japan, more pressure would be applied to Sony’s 1st party teams. That wouldn’t be ideal. Sony would be draining more funds to make more games — and that’ll be a losing proposition. Look back at PSX and PS2 — all of Sony’s best games came from 3rd party exclusives. While Sony has made some headway with its own titles, the fact is SCEA, SCEJ, and 989 can’t compete alongside HAL, Bungie, or Lionhead.

What this would mean is the end of Sony’s grand strategy …

The purpose of the PS3 is essentially twofold: (1) populate CELL and (2) win a format licensing war — let’s be frank about this. Sure, there will be DMC4, Heavenly Sword, and FF13 — but that’s not Stinger’s ultimate point now, is it? The reason Ps3 is so expensive is because the Co. spent billions in R&D to build those two elements. The PS3 is the frontline in making sure Sony not only recoups the investments, but profits many times over. Without enough PS3s in households, the CELL will remain expensive to produce, and the same will hold true for Blu-Ray discs and players. If Sony has to cut prices deeper to move PS3s then it might win the format war, but the time it’ll take to get back in black will be seriously lengthened, not to mention the jaunting reality that disc-based delivery might very well be gone next-gen, which would render Blu-Rays defunct right when Sony breaks even. Now you know why Stinger’s supporters are walking around like they have ants in their pants.

The irony in all this is that Sony’s consumer electronics and movie divisions are now as rosy as ever. What once were seen as the laggers dragging down the whole Sony empire are now what save Sony’s earnings report. The PlayStation division, on the other hand, is now looking more and more like the reason why Sony’s profit margins will be squeezed for years to come.

 

Nintendo Gets Modded

Every console maker dreads two words, and those words are “mod chip”. Thus far, Nintendo has gone the extra mile (sometimes arguably to the detriment of its success) to stop hackers from modding its systems. The N64 was the last cartridge-based console, which drove up publisher costs so much that it’s often used as the reason why then-Squaresoft abandoned Nintendo for the fledgling Sony PSOne (or as geeks call it, the PSX). The GameCube then used proprietary Panasonic-developed mini-dvd rom, which again foiled most attempts to mod the machine, since the discs were not widely distributed and the GCN could not play regular sized discs (the Panasonic Q was likely halted from a stateside release to prevent widespread modding).

When it was announced the Wii would play regular sized DVDs, you have to think there were some basement hackers cheering and smiling. It didn’t take Hackers long to get the job done. The Wiinja (we REALLY have to stop with these stupid puns) has supposedly KOed the security of the Wii. In a video posted on YouTube (above), you can witness the player using what appears to be burned DVD Roms to play Wii games.

Should this be authentic, this now makes the entire library of Gamecube titles available to hackers the world over. For now, let’s presume this video is authentic and that the Wiinja chip is indeed real. The immediate reaction by Nintendo (and its loyal followers) might be to engage in direct legal battle to stop the modding as soon as possible. Nintendo might seek to release firmware updates to block its usage (much like how MS has sought to stop modding by id’ing it through its uber-popular Live service). This route may work, but given how few of Nintendo’s consumers are probably online in the first place, and the company’s relative inexperience in that department, it may not be the road to take.

Confronting modding is an interesting business in the videogame world. Undeniably, it creates a piracy channel for those willing to find games in the underground, but to look at modding as a means to an illegal activity is missing an entirely different side of the coin. Ken Kutaragi, the former head of Sony’s gaming division and father of the PlayStation, probably made a lot of publishing execs angry when he suggested that modding “helps” PlayStation more than it hurts it. And he’s right; as the console manufacturer, modding might indeed help early on. For Nintendo, it might do for the Wii what I think it did for the PSOne — and that’s rope in the hardcore and disbelievers.

PSOne was modded not long after its debut and some will admit that played quite a role in keeping the console afloat until FF7 royally crowned the console with then-obscene penetration growth. The Wii, for its success, is bringing in new gamers, but there is a hardcore that still refuses to pick up the console. The modding might just help the Wii capture that audience. Let’s face it, the only gamers who mod are the hardcore. Most consumers, the ones Nintendo goes after, probably have never heard of modding, let alone the notion of taking apart your console to weld something inside it. These are the same folks who would give you the oddest expression when you tell them, “Don’t send your iPod to Apple. Just buy a cheap iPod battery to replace the one inside it.”

Modders include gaming’s elite — and by that I mean the people who influence decisions. No editor of respectable gaming publications will admit to it, but most do indeed have modded consoles and even burned games. While I have seen no graph trying to map the value they bring, I don’t think it’s a far-fetched argumenbt to say their positive conversations do more good than damage to a console company. And we all know that in the world of consoles, penetration is the key to success. If you have enough of an installed base, the percentage of modders will be pretty much negligible — one of the reasons I believe why Sony doesn’t really go after them.

Also, modders often get their hands on games not released stateside, and post reviews of them far before they do. Games like Ikaruga for Dreamcast arguably made it to the US on GameCube because of the mod penetration in the States, which kept conversation about the title alive well after Sega’s little beauty bit the dust. Speaking of the DC, that’s one console where modding probably did hurt the machine more than help it. Sega, also a viable publisher, was hurt financially by pirated titles. But I would argue the industry dynamics of 1999 up through the PS2 launch is markedly different than the Wii scenario; from target audience to system gameplay, the Wii presents a starker contrast from its competition than the DC did from PS2.

It should be noted Nintendo has a long-standing history of scouring the underground to hunt down hackers and piraters. This is a company that actually went after people modding its long dead NES Roms, and even sent out nasty emails to people who posted pictures of its classic franchises. Given Nintendo sells those games now for what I think are still ludricously high prices, it’ll be interesting to see how the “new” Iwata-driven Nintendo goes about this modding development. Iwata, a tech-geek himself, might see this the same way as Kutaragi does, and if so, we might see the Big N go quiet on this issue — and how 180 would that be? In less than a year, Nintendo goes from 3rd place to sucker-punching the entire gaming industry, and then shifts from an over-protective, closed circle to a pentration-crazy, who-cares-about-modding stance. If this happens, “Crazy Ken” might not be so crazy anymore.